Iowa Caucus Predictions (2024)
Prediction:*
Donald J. Trump: under 50% (~47%)
Nikki Haley: ~24%
Ron DeSantis: ~21%
Vivek Ramaswamy: ~5%
Others, etc: ~3%.
Commentary:
The essential questions tonight: Does DeSantis punch his ticket out of Iowa? There is no question that Trump and Haley have already punched their tickets to the #NHPrimary and #SCPrimary.
If DeSantis does not perform well, this could easily become a two-person race. DeSantis’ target is probably somewhere around the mid-twenties; if he ends up below 23% or below — he is OUT.
For Trump, his goal tonight will be to stay above 50%. If he can stay above 53% he can claim a mandate. Anything less will be considered a FAILURE (and he will begin to last out publicly).
Haley has to maintain or beat expectations to WIN the night — be around 20% (+) and she WILL punch her ticket to New Hampshire and South Carolina!
Ramaswamy is hoping for the weather to play a factor in any potential success. If he hovers around 10% that’s a good night for him. The question from here will be: Whom is his base of voters after Trump threw him under the bus this past weekend?
Unfortunately, Asa Hutchinson will probably scale back his campaign more tonight — if not suspend. If he cracks 1%, that will be a MASSIVE win for him.
What are your thoughts or predictions ahead of this bone-chilling, freezing-cold Iowa Caucus night?
*All predicted numbers are +/- 2%.
